Many expect to see heavyweight title challenger Cain Velasquez (black and red trunks) return to his trademark ground-and-pound assault in this rematch against Junior Dos Santos. (Photo courtesy of Zuffa, LLC.)
As MMA’s 2012 calendar year draws to a close, the UFC returns from its globe-trot to its home in Las Vegas for UFC 155: Dos Santos vs. Velasquez II on December 29. The MGM Grand Garden Arena plays host to a night of thrilling fights including “The Crippler” Chris Leben (22-8) returning to the Octagon against Derek Brunson (9-2). “The Talent” Alan Belcher (18-6) looks to stake his title claim at middleweight against “Thunder” Yushin Okami (27-7). Another surging middleweight, “The Barbarian” Tim Boetsch (16-4), takes on Serra-Longo prospect Constantinos Philippou (11-2). “J-Lau” Joe Lauzon (22-7) looks to keep his win streak alive against the always-tough Jim Miller (21-4). The marquee fight closes out the year perfectly as the UFC Heavyweight Championship is put on the line in a rematch of arguably the two toughest heavyweights on the planet in champ “Cigano” Junior Dos Santos (15-1) and the man from whom he took the title, Cain Velasquez (10-1).
At First Glance: With the muddy waters of the heavyweight title picture and the injury-plagued 2012 calendar year, it’s a miracle this fight is taking place. Junior cemented his status as the true heavyweight kingpin when he easily dispatched Frank Mir (16-6) back in May. While JDS had his eyes set on “Demolition Man” Alistair Overeem (36-11), Alistair failed a random drug test and will be sidelined until the end of the year. Not one to be brash and outspoken, Cain Velasquez stated his case for a title shot the best way he knows how: destroying the competition. He took out “Bigfoot” Antonio Silva (17-4) in a vicious, back-to-basics, ground-and-pound assault and made it very hard for the UFC brass to ignore him. Many wondered in their first outing why Cain didn’t use his wrestling pedigree to take out Dos Santos. If the “Bigfoot” fight was any indication, Cain got the memo. Their rematch looks to be a straightforward battle of wills.
Junior dos Santos (red gloves) has already beaten the best ground fighters in the heavyweight division including Cain Velasquez to capture the title, and there is little reason to expect that to change. (Photo courtesy of Zuffa, LLC.)
In Depth: Both champ and challenger have very specific game plans coming in and both will know just what kind of fighter is across the cage from them. The champ has employed a tried-and-true formula in his climb to the belt: sprawl and brawl. JDS has some of the best takedown defense ever seen in the heavyweight ranks. Any time he’s found himself on the floor, Junior has bounced back up and fired heavy shots. Dos Santos also boasts the heavyweight division’s best boxing, with lightning fast combos and crushing power. He has proven that in the pocket or at length you do not want to be hit by “Cigano”. He is likely preparing for a heavy wrestling and clinch fight so look for Junior to keep his footwork fast and his back off the cage. He may even employ low kicks to goad Velasquez into shooting in an attempt to set up one of his vicious uppercuts. JDS will likely look for the knockout early, but has shown he can go the distance; if his cardio and wrestling defense hold up, he can very well beat Cain to the punch and protect his title. The bread and butter of Cain’s skill set is his Division I wrestling. In their first outing Cain was content on using his ever-improving kickboxing as a feeling out tool, but 64 seconds later he was no longer the champ. His workman-like attitude told him to go back to the drawing board and sharpen the skills that made him champion. He will look for takedown openings quickly and will likely shoot the second he sees Dos Santos put up his guard. From the point of contact Cain will drive relentlessly until his takedown is completed. Knowing Junior’s ability to defend Cain will look to smash him against the cage, dirty boxing where appropriate only to drop deeper and deeper for singles, doubles, high-crotch takedowns, and switches. All the while he will be dragging on Junior’s shoulders, attempting to fatigue his arms early. Once the fight hits the floor expect Cain to unleash Hell on Junior. Elbows will be used frequently and with ill intent by the challenger as he will look to slice open the champ, and at the very least demoralize him. If Cain can accomplish this the first two rounds, his dynamic cardio will take him to victory by either decision or stoppage.
The Wild Card: How well Cain Velasquez has adapted his striking since their last fight could determine just how dominant he can be. Cain has shown a studious attitude toward fighting and is sure to have a back-up plan. If he cannot keep Junior down – which is a very real possibility – he will have to best him in striking. His kickboxing is powerful and fast, but he simply doesn’t have the ring time and muscle memory on the feet that Junior does. As one of MMA’s young prodigies, Cain may surprise us with an even more effective striking game, which will require a lot more kicks. If he can fire off damaging strikes and take out Junior’s legs early he may be able to seal this fight with his kickboxing and put a stamp on it with his ground-and-pound. Of course this formula led to his defeat at the hands of “Cigano” over a year ago so defensive improvement is a must.
The Verdict: This fight is about who makes their impression first. Both men have a serious case for why victory is in their favor. Preparation and injuries are denominators we as pundits aren’t privy to, so smart money would say bet on the wrestler every time. However, the power of Junior Dos Santos is something that has time and again shown to be the dominant factor. “Cigano” will only need one shot to change the tide of this fight and he has already found it against Cain once before. While the first round may look like an open and shut case for great wrestling to prevail and once again claim a title, expect the second round to bring us back to reality: Junior dos Santos is here to stay. Dos Santos via TKO (Punches), Round 2
